The post below is a very powerful blog commentary by journalist Carlos Elordi on the current Spanish political situation, which, as Elordi sees it, is about to enter into a major crisis. I thought it worthwhile to translate it to English. Elordi writes from a critical Spanish left perspective, and gives good background on the issue and a sobering prognosis - perhaps a little alarmist but to me credible. And he does, at least tentatively, point to a way out. The original version "La catástrofe ya es inevitable" can be found here.
"
If the Catalan electorate does not substantially alter its current
voting patterns, on September 27 this year, Spain could begin to enter a constitutional crisis
whose severity would only be comparable to that of the attempted military coup in 1981.
The current threat is not new; rather, it has been gradually but very visibly brewing, for
all to see, over the last four years, even over the last decade. However, the
two major Spanish political parties, along with the institutions they control,
the leading Spanish media and a large proportion of the intellectuals who think
about these issues, have decided year after year to ignore this possibility,
contenting themselves with making noises about the evils of the Catalan independence
movement and enshrining with almost holy status the idea that the law must
simply be enforced when necessary. And now it's too late to react. A head-on collision
is inevitable.
If the unified pro-independence ticket wins the Catalan elections
on September 27 - and that seems the most likely outcome, although some polls doubt it – then within 6 months, the new Catalan parliament will adopt a "Law of
Transition" that will, in fact, be an interim declaration of independence from Spain, pending approval of the final text, which is set down to occur a year later.
The electoral programme of this ticket, known as Junts pel Sí (United
for ‘Yes’), defines this sequence of actions clearly and unequivocally, and there
is nothing to suggest that the groups that make up this candidacy intend to deviate
an inch from their script. They have made their commitment to the voters; the
voters will vote for them to so they can put it into practice.
The supposedly forceful rhetoric of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano
Rajoy - "there will be no independence", "the law will be
enforced" – and the pathetic insistence of the opposition socialists, the
PSOE, in their proposal for Spanish federalism – something they have done
nothing at all to advance in the last ten years - will not alter the
determination of Catalan independence supporters who since 2011 have
continually demonstrated on an ever-more-massive scale the strength of their convictions
as well as their rejection of everything thrown at them by Madrid. To combat
this, last-minute manoeuvres are irrelevant.
A change of attitude by the central government is
unthinkable. The major priority of Rajoy’s Partido Popular (PP) is to win the Spanish
general election [also due before the end of 2015], and any minimal gesture of
compromise with the pro-independence movement would be interpreted by the more traditional
part of the PP electorate, which still believes in the Francoist idea of a
single homogenous Spanish nation, as an intolerable concession that would surely
cause the PP to lose their votes. In perfect harmony with its Francoist ideological
origins, the right has built its discourse on the basis of irreconcilable opposition
to Spain’s peripheral nationalisms and any reversal of those principles would be traumatic and impossible.
Convinced about its mission – and it is probably on this issue
that the PP’s stance is firmest and most ideologically intransigent - the Spanish
government and Rajoy's governing party have done everything in their power to ratchet
up the tension to breaking point. Earlier, when in opposition in 2006, they had
opposed the Catalan reformist initiative - for a new Statute on Catalan autonomy within Spain - that the then-Prime Minister, the
socialist Zapatero, had agreed with the Catalans to accept without alterations. They forced the socialist
leader to back down; Zapatero’s weakness split the Catalan branch of the socialist party,
the PSC, and sent it into crisis. And that led to the sharp decline of the PSC
and the disappearance of a balancing force, which, had it survived, could have
changed the dynamic of much that has happened in recent years.
Rajoy praised the PSC disaster as a great helping hand to his
interests. And since then he has not stopped tightening the screws on Catalan
nationalism. With his appeal to the Spanish Constitutional Court claiming that the
already-watered-down Catalan Statute passed by the Spanish Parliament in 2006
was unconstitutional. With his implementation to the letter of the
Constitutional Court ruling on the Catalan Statute which was given in 2010, consecrating
the PP’s court action. With his attempts, always frustrated, to curb the
growing separatist movement by means of an abusive application of the law and the
processes of prosecution. And by cutting the legal powers of the Catalan
government.
In 2005 a Basque nationalist challenge led by Basque
President Juan Jose Ibarretxe [also seeking a referendum on independence from Spain],
ended when he had to face a vote in the Spanish parliament, but had failed to
see he had lost the support of much of Basque nationalism, both the radical wing
and his own more conservative party. To avoid this fate, Catalan leader Artur
Mas anticipated events in the Catalan sovereignty movement, and decided to ally
with the whole spectrum of pro-independence groups. Rajoy gambled on splitting
Mas’s party, the Convergencia i Unió alliance (CiU). Rajoy achieved this, but
now the split-off section is neither an ally for him, nor scarcely of any importance
at all.
What will the Spanish Prime Minister do if the pro-independence groups win on “27-S”, and begin to implement their programme? He will have no
alternative but to follow through on the stance his party has taken and attack the
new Catalan government with as big a stick as he can wield. That means, either
suspending the power of the Catalan government, or unceremoniously applying the
new Public Safety Act [the so-called “Gag Law”] recently passed with the support
of the socialists, which provides that in a situation of "national
interest" the Catalan authorities would be subject to central government control
and the Spanish Prime Minister could take charge of regional police functions without
the authorization of parliament.
Both devices would serve the same purpose. That is, to effectively
remove from power the Catalan government elected just a few weeks earlier. If
the putting into practice of the pro-independence manifesto might be traumatic
for Catalonia, given that it would be against the wishes of the many Catalans
who oppose it, the suspension of Catalonia’s own government and/or the
application of the Public Safety Act would be much more so. Thus, any
catastrophic scenario you can imagine is perfectly possible, whether sooner or
later. A tough stand against independence could lead Rajoy to victory in the
Spanish general elections, but the reactions that it could cause would make his
government unviable. That risk is already leading some people to exhume the
idea of a bipartisan PP-PSOE coalition to govern this morass. And this,
without considering the readings that this new Spanish situation would lead to at
international level, and in the economic and financial sphere.
If the Spanish right was not what it is - and what more than
a few people forget that it is - and if the Spanish socialist party had felt
capable of playing more than a bit part when faced with major questions of
state, a similar route to that followed in Scotland by the British government could
have been tried in Spain. But here, that possibility was devalued and deprecated.
And the idea that Catalans might have the right to decide their own future was considered
anathema. A political class incapable of rising to the circumstances has led us
to where we are. The Catalan crisis is yet another reason to throw that class
out of power. And it is never too late for that, even if things get really bad.
"
Carlos Elordi
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